974
acus01 kwns 080533
swody1
Storm Prediction Center ac 080531
Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Tuesday Feb 07 2012
Valid 081200z - 091200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
...
broad cyclonic flow will be present in the middle/upper levels over the
central/eastern Continental U.S....while one embedded shortwave trough moves southeastward
across parts of the northern/Central Plains and a second embedded shortwave
trough moves from the Ohio Valley toward the middle-Atlantic and off the
East Coast. Farther west...a middle/upper-level ridge will build north-northeastward
across parts of the northwestern states...while a closed low over the far
eastern Pacific moves south-southeastward near the coast of Baja California California.
..S Florida this afternoon...
Northwesterly to northerly flow behind a remnant surface front...oriented NE to SW
across the southern Florida Peninsula...will expand southward and cover a larger
part of S Florida today compared to yesterday. This will occur as weak
surface low pressure shifts northeastward across the southwestern North Atlantic. In
response...the boundary layer will become less moist/unstable as
relatively drier air over northern/central parts of the Florida Peninsula is
transported southward. An exception may exist over a narrow corridor
adjacent to the far southeastern coast including eastern Broward and eastern
Miami-Dade counties and the Upper Keys. In this area...the
background surface pressure gradient is forecast to remain sufficiently
weak to potentially support the development of a coastal sea breeze
convergence zone...owing to diabatic heating over land. The influx
of the marine layer in association with the sea breeze circulation
coincident with peak heating may increase buoyancy within the
aforementioned corridor. And...with low-level convergence attendant
to the sea breeze boundary...an isolated thunderstorm or two will be
possible in this corridor.
..deep S Texas today...
Weak warm air advection above the relatively cool layer in the low levels is only
expected to support very weak elevated instability /MUCAPE values
below 100 j per kg/. As such...the threat for thunderstorms is too
low for any thunder probabilities at this time.
.Cohen/Goss.. 02/08/2012
Mesoscale Discussion
704
acus11 kwns 042246
sels mesoscale discussion
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 042246
alz000-msz000-laz000-050015-
Mesoscale discussion 0113
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CST Sat Feb 04 2012
Areas affected...far southeastern la...far southeastern MS...far southwestern Alabama
Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely
Valid 042246z - 050015z
A few storms may produce strong wind gusts into early evening across
far southeastern la...far southeastern MS...and far southwestern Alabama...with a weakening trend
expected after 01z. A ww is not needed.
A prefrontal squall line continues moving eastward around 20 knots...
currently extending from east of the Hattiesburg MS area southward toward
the east end of Lake Pontchartrain to near Grand Isle la. Low-level
ascent at the leading edge of convective outflow amidst a weakly
buoyant -- MLCAPE of 500 to 1000 j per kg -- and anomalously moist
troposphere -- precipitable water values of 180 to 190 percent of normal per blended
AMSU/SSMI data -- should allow storms to continue moving eastward along
the central Gulf Coast. Only modest amounts of deep-layer shear per
area vwp data will contribute to maintaining some convective
organization...with locally gusty winds owing to water loading
processes and weak/broad...line-embedded mesoscale circulations.
However...weak low-level flow per Mobile vwp data...the lack of
deep-layer forcing for ascent...the absence of greater
buoyancy...and the absence of a more organized cold pool will
greatly minimize any threat for severe wind gusts. After
01z...nocturnal stabilization will be associated with a reduction in
the threat for strong storms.
.Cohen.. 02/04/2012
..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product...
Attention...WFO...mob...lix...
Latitude...Lon 30418780 30158816 29668875 29068918 29298980 30028962
30708926 31208880 31318826 31148779 30758771 30418780
